Welcome to your weekly Forex Market Recap, where we review major currency moves from the past week and preview the key events likely to drive the market in the week ahead. From central bank decisions to inflation data and geopolitical risks, here’s everything you need to stay prepared in the forex world.
March 17–21, 2025: Weekly Forex Market Recap Highlights
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Supports the Dollar– On March 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, signaling a cautious stance amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. This pause in rate changes gave support to the U.S. dollar, helping it strengthen against several major currencies.
Swiss National Bank Cuts Rates– On March 20, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the market by cutting rates by 25 basis points. Other central banks, including the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), and Riksbank, kept rates unchanged. The SNB’s move added pressure on the Swiss franc while highlighting diverging global monetary policy paths.
India’s Forex Reserves Increase– March 21 brought positive news from India as its foreign exchange reserves increased by $300 million, reaching a total of $654.27 billion. This signals continued resilience in emerging markets despite global economic challenges.
Eurozone Current Account Declines– Also on March 20, the Eurozone’s current account posted a sharp decline to €13.2 billion from €50.5 billion in the previous month. This decline applied pressure on the euro and raised concerns about the region’s external balance.
Turkish Lira Weakens Amid Political Risk– During the week of March 17–21, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF dropped by 20% due to rising political uncertainty. The Turkish lira weakened sharply, reflecting increased investor caution toward emerging market currencies.
March 24–28, 2025: Forex Market Events to Watch
Eurozone PMIs May Lift EUR/USD– On March 24, traders will focus on the Eurozone’s PMI data, which is expected to improve. Strong figures could drive a rebound in EUR/USD above the 1.09 level. However, trade tensions and external risks may limit gains.
UK Spring Forecast Could Pressure GBP– The UK’s Spring Forecast on March 26 could trigger volatility in the British pound. Markets are watching whether Chancellor Reeves will maintain fiscal rules or announce higher spending. A weak outlook could weigh on GBP.
Norges Bank Decision: Krone Stability Expected– On March 27, Norges Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.50%. Inflation data remains elevated, and while a rate cut is unlikely, any dovish or hawkish tone could influence the Norwegian krone (NOK) in the short term.
U.S. PCE Data to Influence Dollar Outlook– The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is due on March 28, with markets expecting a 2.0% year-on-year increase. As a key inflation gauge, this data could impact future Federal Reserve decisions and drive volatility in USD pairs.
Fed Speakers Could Spark USD Volatility– Throughout the week, speeches by Fed officials Bostic (March 24) and Williams (March 25) may offer insights into future monetary policy. Any hint of a shift in stance could affect the U.S. dollar and overall market sentiment.
Trader Takeaways from the Forex Market Recap
- USD Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance continues to support the dollar. Watch the March 28 PCE data for potential trend shifts.
- EUR/USD Opportunity: Strong Eurozone PMIs could drive EUR/USD higher. A move above 1.09 may offer short-term trading opportunities.
- GBP Risk: UK’s fiscal update may disappoint markets. A weaker pound is possible if spending plans exceed expectations.
- NOK Stability: While Norges Bank may hold steady, any hawkish tone could provide upward pressure on NOK.
- Emerging Markets Caution: After Turkey’s volatility, political risks remain a concern in emerging market currencies.
Conclusion: Opportunities and Risks
This Forex Market Recap shows that currency markets remain active and sensitive to central bank decisions, economic data, and geopolitical events. The week ahead (March 24–28, 2025) promises continued volatility, with key releases and policy commentary guiding the next big moves.
Stay updated, manage risk carefully, and monitor both technical levels and macro developments to make informed trading decisions.
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