The U.S. dollar continues to dominate global markets, but its future remains uncertain. Will it stay strong, weaken due to inflation, or experience major volatility due to global shifts? This article explores three leading views to provide a clear Dollar Forecast for both the short and long term.
We’ll look at:
- Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory
- Peter Schiff’s prediction of collapse
- A lesser-known theory based on global dollar shortages
Three Perspectives on the U.S. Dollar
Before making a Dollar Forecast, it’s important to understand the key perspectives shaping the debate.
1. The Systemic Wildcard: Global Dollar Shortages
Some experts argue that the dollar’s movement is not just about strength or weakness—but about scarcity. This theory explains that during financial crises, countries struggle to access enough dollars, pushing the value of the dollar higher in the short term.
For example, during the 2020 repo crisis and again in 2024, foreign countries sold U.S. Treasuries to get dollars, which pushed bond yields higher and created global instability. In this view, the Federal Reserve is not controlling the dollar but reacting to these pressures. Over time, a global reset may be needed, using gold, cryptocurrencies, or a new global currency.
2. Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, believes the dollar will rise in value due to global liquidity flows. According to his “Dollar Milkshake” theory, when other countries print money, capital flows back into the U.S., increasing dollar strength.
Johnson expects that rising interest rates and economic weakness in other nations will lead to continued dollar demand. He sees the Dollar Index (DXY) possibly rising above 120 or even 130 over the next few years, although he does acknowledge that the strength may eventually reverse.
3. Peter Schiff’s Warning of Dollar Collapse
Peter Schiff sees a much more negative Dollar Forecast. He argues that growing U.S. debt, rising inflation, and the loss of global confidence could lead to a collapse in the dollar’s value. Schiff predicts inflation will rise sharply and foreign investors will sell off U.S. Treasuries.
In this scenario, the DXY could fall below 60, gold could jump past $5,000 per ounce, and the dollar would lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency.
Short-Term Dollar Forecast (2025–2030)
How will the dollar perform over the next five years?
Systemic Wildcard: Dollar May Spike, Then Fall
The systemic shortage theory suggests that short-term spikes in the dollar are caused by panic. For example, in March 2020, the DXY jumped to 103. A similar rise happened in 2024, when U.S. bond yields rose sharply due to foreign selling.
As of March 2025, the DXY stands at 104. If a new crisis hits, it may rise to 110. But this strength would be temporary and driven by fear—not long-term growth.
Brent Johnson: Continued Dollar Strength Ahead
Johnson expects strong capital flows into the U.S. due to higher interest rates. In early 2025 alone, $300 billion moved into U.S. assets. As emerging markets struggle with dollar-denominated debt, the dollar could gain even more strength.
His Dollar Forecast puts the DXY at 130 by 2028, supported by safe-haven buying during global instability.
Peter Schiff: Inflation Is the Warning Sign
Schiff sees inflation as the key threat. With CPI at 4.2% in February 2025 and government debt nearing $36 trillion, he warns that the U.S. could be heading for a crisis. As foreign demand for Treasuries declines, yields could spike above 6%, triggering sharp market corrections and weakening the dollar.
Short-Term Summary: Brent Johnson’s Forecast Leads
From 2025 to 2030, Brent Johnson’s strong-dollar scenario appears the most accurate. The data supports dollar strength, though short-term volatility from global stress remains a risk. Schiff’s collapse scenario hasn’t played out yet, but should still be monitored.
Long-Term Dollar Forecast (2030–2045)
What happens to the dollar over the next 20 years?
Systemic Wildcard: A Shift to a New System
This theory predicts that long-term pressure from dollar shortages and foreign debt will lead to a financial reset. Alternatives to the dollar—such as gold, digital currencies, or a new global currency—may replace its central role.
BRICS countries are already increasing trade in local currencies and buying gold. If this continues, the Dollar Forecast points to a slow decline in dominance. By 2040, the DXY could fall to 90 or below.
Brent Johnson: Dollar Peaks, Then Declines
Johnson believes the dollar will remain strong until around 2035, with the DXY possibly reaching 160. But this strength may eventually become unsustainable, forcing a shift to a multi-currency world.
Possible alternatives could include a gold-backed yuan, a BRICS digital currency, or even Bitcoin rising above $1 million.
Peter Schiff: Dollar Collapse by 2035
Schiff forecasts a dollar crash caused by massive debt, inflation, and foreign capital flight. By 2035, U.S. debt could hit $40 trillion. If foreign investors sell their $5 trillion in Treasuries, bond yields could rise to 10%, causing major stock market losses.
His Dollar Forecast ends with the greenback losing its global status and gold rising above $10,000 per ounce.
Long-Term Outlook: Systemic Shift Is Most Likely
While all three forecasts have risks and insights, the systemic wildcard theory offers the most balanced long-term outlook. It acknowledges the dollar’s current strength but anticipates a major change in global finance by the 2040s.
Final Dollar Forecast: What to Expect
- 2025–2030: Strong dollar continues (Brent Johnson’s view)
- 2030–2035: Pressure builds from debt and global tensions
- 2035–2045: Dollar slowly loses dominance (Systemic wildcard or Schiff’s warning could play out)
Key Takeaways:
- Diversify: Don’t rely on the dollar alone—add gold, commodities, and digital assets.
- Watch Global Debt: As U.S. debt grows, pressure on the dollar will increase.
- Stay Updated: Monitor DXY, interest rates, and global trade patterns.
The U.S. dollar remains strong—for now. But based on all forecasts, change is coming. Understanding these different views can help you prepare and protect your wealth in the years ahead.
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