The U.S. dollar is under serious pressure in 2025. The EUR/USD has jumped to 1.1400, oil prices have dropped below $60 per barrel, and gold has reached a new high of $3,200 per ounce. This market chaos is linked to Trump’s latest tariffs, but some major financial experts like Brent Johnson and Jeff Snider believe the dollar fall may not last. So, is the dollar really in trouble, or could it recover soon?
April 2025 Market Snapshot: Dollar Down, Gold Up, Oil Low
As of April 11, 2025, the EUR/USD hit 1.1400—up 500 pips in just four days. Gold soared to $3,200 as investors rushed into safe-haven assets. Oil prices dropped to $59.10 due to rising OPEC+ production and trade war fears. These moves show a clear sign of dollar weakness. Technical indicators suggest the euro might be overbought, but many are wondering why the dollar is falling if the global economy is so shaky.
Trump’s Tariffs: Fueling the Dollar Fall and Market Chaos
President Trump has shaken markets with major tariff changes. On April 9, he paused tariffs for most countries for 90 days but raised China’s tariffs from 104% to 145%. China hit back with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. These moves caused huge market swings. The S&P 500 first jumped, then fell, and then rose again. Oil and gold responded sharply too. Investors see these tariffs as a major reason behind the current dollar fall.
Gold Hits $3,200 as Investors React to Dollar Decline
Gold prices jumped 3% in a single day, reaching $3,193.80 on April 10. This surge reflects investor fear and a weakening U.S. dollar. Analysts expect gold to rise further, with forecasts of $3,300–$3,500 by 2025. Inflation concerns and high borrowing costs in the U.S. are also pushing gold higher. A falling dollar usually boosts gold prices—and this is exactly what’s happening.
Brent Johnson’s View: The Dollar Milkshake Theory
Brent Johnson’s “Dollar Milkshake Theory” explains how the U.S. can still dominate global finance even during a dollar fall. He believes the dollar is in high demand due to global debt. With $40 trillion in dollar-denominated debt worldwide, countries need dollars just to make interest payments. Despite the current dip, Johnson expects the dollar to bounce back because there is no true alternative.
Jeff Snider’s Take: The Eurodollar System Still Creates Demand
Jeff Snider believes the global shadow banking system (called the Eurodollar system) keeps the dollar strong in the long term. He says the current EUR/USD surge is just a short-term blip due to tight offshore dollar liquidity. Oil below $60 means countries need more dollars to pay for imports, which could soon reverse the dollar fall. In his view, the demand for dollars hasn’t gone away—it’s just hidden.
Peter Schiff: The Dollar Collapse Has Started
Peter Schiff has long warned about the dollar’s downfall, and he sees the current drop as proof. He blames massive U.S. debt, rising inflation, and the tariff war. Schiff recommends dumping dollars and buying gold. He believes Trump’s tariffs are scaring off foreign investors and leading the U.S. into an economic crisis.
Luke Gromen: Dollar Debt Is Weighing Down the System
Luke Gromen argues that global debt in dollars is now unpayable. This is forcing countries to sell their dollar reserves, which is accelerating the dollar fall. He believes a debt crisis is brewing, especially with oil prices low and global trade slowing down. Central banks are buying gold to protect themselves, supporting his view that the dollar is losing power.
Lyn Alden: De-Dollarization Is Happening Slowly
Lyn Alden sees a gradual global move away from the dollar. She notes that the U.S. is using the dollar as a weapon through sanctions, pushing countries like China and Russia to find alternatives. The strong euro, stable Eurozone economy, and rising gold prices all fit into her view that the dollar’s dominance is declining—but slowly, not suddenly.
Is the Dollar Fall Temporary or the Start of Something Bigger?
Some experts like Johnson and Snider believe the dollar will recover due to strong global demand. Others, like Schiff and Gromen, think we’re seeing the start of a long-term collapse. Alden’s middle-ground view suggests the dollar will lose influence over time but won’t crash overnight. The EUR/USD could pull back if U.S. data improves or the Fed turns hawkish again.
Trading Strategy: How to Trade the Dollar Fall
If you’re trading the EUR/USD:
- Entry Point: Wait for a break below 1.1200.
- Stop Loss: Above 1.1400 to avoid false signals.
- Target: 1.0900, which aligns with key support and moving averages.
- Confirmation: Look for a bearish pattern and a drop in the Stochastic indicator.
If the dollar continues to fall, consider going long toward 1.1600. High volatility gives good trading opportunities either way.
Why the Dollar Fall Matters for Everyone
A falling dollar affects more than just traders:
- U.S. Exports: Become more competitive, which helps companies like Boeing.
- U.S. Inflation: Could rise due to more expensive imports.
- Eurozone: A stronger euro may hurt exports but attract global capital.
- Emerging Markets: Benefit from lower debt burdens but risk market shocks.
- Gold: A strong hedge as fear rises globally.
Final Thoughts: Will the Dollar Fall Continue or Reverse?
As of April 11, 2025, with the EUR/USD at 1.1400, oil below $60, and gold at $3,200, the dollar is clearly under pressure. Trump’s tariffs are adding fuel to the fire. Experts are split—some see a rebound, others see a long decline. But one thing is certain: this dollar fall has huge global implications. Whether it’s a turning point or just temporary, the next few months will be crucial for the world economy.
While the dollar dives and gold flies, we break it all down—join our Discord before the next plot twist!
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