Dollar Dips: Gold Soars, Oil Crashes & Trump Tariffs Spark Chaos

Introduction: A Financial Soap Opera with High Stakes!

The financial markets are serving up more drama than a reality TV finale! The U.S. dollar is taking a beating, with EUR/USD at 1.1400 on April 11, 2025, Brent crude oil has tanked below $60 a barrel, and gold has skyrocketed to $3,200 per ounce, fueled by Trump’s tariff chaos. Yet, macro titans Brent Johnson and Jeff Snider aren’t sounding the alarm on a weaker dollar in the short to medium term. What’s going on? Is the dollar doomed, or is this a dramatic setup for a comeback? Let’s unpack this mess with Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory, Snider’s Eurodollar System, Schiff’s apocalyptic rants, Gromen’s debt saturation, and Alden’s structural shift, while diving deep into the latest Trump tariff news shaking the globe. Buckle up for a sarcastic, emoji-filled rollercoaster that’ll keep you hooked!

The Scene: EUR/USD at 1.1400, Oil Below $60, Gold at $3,200, and Tariffs on Fire

Let’s set the stage. On April 11, 2025, at 04:14 AM PDT, the EUR/USD is at 1.1400, up from 1.0900 just days ago on April 7, signaling a 500-pip rally and a serious dollar smackdown. Brent crude oil is at $59.10 a barrel, down 15.54% since the start of 2025, driven by U.S.-China trade tensions and OPEC+ production hikes. Gold, meanwhile, has hit $3,200 per ounce, a new record, as investors flee to safe-haven assets amid Trump’s tariff escalation. The latest news shows gold climbing to $3,193.80 on April 10, with spot gold reaching $3,175.07, driven by fears of Trump’s trade war impacting the global economy. The EUR/USD chart on TradingView looks overstretched—price above the upper Bollinger Band, RSI showing bearish divergence (higher price highs, lower RSI highs), and the Stochastic oscillator screaming overbought above 80. The euro’s rally might be due for a pullback, but why aren’t Johnson and Snider calling for a weaker dollar in the short to medium term? Let’s break it down, starting with Trump’s tariffs, which are lighting a fire under markets.

Trump’s Tariffs: The Latest News and Global Fallout

Trump’s tariff saga is the talk of the financial world, and it’s moving fast. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, except China, where he jacked up the levy to 125% from 104%, later escalating to 145%. China retaliated hard, hiking tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% as of April 11, with countermeasures starting Saturday. The Chinese Ministry of Finance called the U.S. tariff hikes a “numbers game” with “no practical economic significance,” predicting it’ll become a “joke in the history of the world economy.” Ouch—shots fired!

Markets are a mess. The S&P 500 soared nearly 10% on April 9 after the tariff pause, hitting $5,456.90, but the gains evaporated fast. By April 10, the S&P 500 fell 3.5%, erasing much of the rally, as fears of a worsening U.S.-China trade war grew. U.S. stocks ripped higher again on April 11 afternoon after the pause, but Goldman Sachs warned the bulls, splashing cold water on the rally. The U.S.-China trade conflict has investors on edge, with Trump’s 10% base tariff on most countries (paused for 90 days) and a 20% tariff on China for fentanyl-related issues adding fuel to the fire.

Globally, the fallout is intense. The European Union matched the U.S. pause on retaliatory duties, but tensions with China show no signs of easing. Under the USMCA, compliant goods trade tariff-free among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, but non-compliant goods face a 25% tariff (10% for energy and potash). Oil prices, which hit a four-year low of $55.12 on April 9, jumped 4% after the tariff pause but remain under pressure below $60, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration warning of lower oil demand due to trade uncertainty.

Gold’s surge to $3,200 per ounce reflects the chaos.

On April 9, spot gold hit $3,059.76, climbing 2.6%, and by April 10, it reached $3,193.80, a 3% daily gain. The precious metal’s rally is driven by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand as Trump’s tariffs threaten global growth. Analysts at Bank of America predict gold could hit $3,500 per ounce in the next two years, while Goldman Sachs sees $3,300 by the end of 2025. The U.S. economy is showing strain—consumer prices fell unexpectedly in March, but inflation risks are rising due to tariffs, and U.S. borrowing costs are climbing as confidence wanes.

Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory: Sucking Up the World’s Liquidity?

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, explained his Dollar Milkshake Theory in a YouTube slide deck, using the There Will Be Blood scene where Daniel Plainview brags, “I drink your milkshake,” to illustrate how the U.S. siphons global liquidity. Johnson argues the U.S. controls the “pipes, tubes, and hoses” of the monetary system—think Treasury, Fed, CHIPS, and SWIFT—making the dollar indispensable. With $40 trillion in global dollar-denominated debt, there’s $850 billion in annual demand just to service it at a 2.3% average rate. Dedollarization? Johnson scoffs—alternatives are like “hooking a garden hose” to a firehose system. He points to Turkey and Argentina, whose currencies crashed 50% last year, as the dollar “kurgan” (Highlander reference) chopping off other fiat heads.

Johnson predicts a “perfect dollar storm”—a short squeeze driving the dollar to all-time highs (DXY levels from the mid-1980s). Why isn’t he calling for a weaker dollar in the short to medium term, despite EUR/USD at 1.1400? He sees structural demand overpowering temporary weakness. Trump’s tariffs, while chaotic, could amplify this by starving the world of dollars—fewer trade flows mean fewer dollars circulating. Even with the Fed cutting rates in 2025, Johnson might argue the $200 billion in emerging market debt due in the next 24 months will force countries to scramble for dollars, pushing the greenback higher. The milkshake machine is still humming, even if it’s spilling a bit right now.

Jeff Snider’s Eurodollar System: The Shadow King Holds Strong

Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments, via his X account (@JeffSnider_EDU), describes the Eurodollar system as a massive, unregulated shadow banking network of dollar-denominated deposits outside the U.S. It’s the Wild West of finance, fueling global liquidity with little Fed oversight—think the 2019 repo market chaos. Snider argues this system creates structural dollar demand, as the world needs dollars for trade, debt, and more. In a 2023 X post, he noted dollar crash predictions since 2008 have been wrong due to this reliance. Snider likely sees the EUR/USD rally to 1.1400 as a temporary liquidity crunch in the Eurodollar market. Fed rate cuts might be tightening offshore dollar liquidity, forcing non-U.S. entities to sell dollars to unwind positions. But with oil below $60, dollar-denominated energy trades are costlier for non-U.S. buyers, potentially driving dollar demand back up. Snider’s not calling for a weaker dollar in the short to medium term because he believes this structural need will prevail. The dollar’s current dip? Just a plot twist in a longer saga of dominance.

Peter Schiff’s Doomsday Rant: Dollar Demise Is Here

Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff on X), the gloom-and-doom CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, has been warning of the dollar’s collapse for years. He blames U.S. fiscal recklessness—trillion-dollar deficits, a national debt past $50 trillion, and a consumption-heavy economy. Schiff’s all over the current dollar fall, with EUR/USD at 1.1400 and gold at $3,200. He’s pointed to Trump’s tariffs as the catalyst, arguing they’re driving foreign capital out of the U.S. and stoking inflation risks. On April 2, Schiff noted on X that gold spiked to $3,150 after Trump’s tariff announcements, while stocks and Bitcoin tanked.

Schiff sees the trade war—125% tariffs on China, retaliatory 125% tariffs from Beijing—as the dollar’s death knell. With oil below $60 hurting U.S. shale producers and inflation risks rising (despite a March consumer price drop), he’s doubling down on gold, which hit $3,200 as a safe-haven asset. Schiff’s advice? Ditch the dollar, buy gold, and brace for a U.S. economic collapse. He’s practically dancing on the dollar’s grave with an “I told you so” smirk.

Luke Gromen’s Sovereign Debt Saturation: The Dollar’s Breaking Point?

Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees (@LukeGromen on X) argues the dollar’s prior strength is its own undoing. His sovereign debt saturation theory says the world is drowning in unpayable dollar-denominated debt, exacerbated by past Fed rate hikes. Countries are forced to sell dollar assets to raise cash, driving the dollar down. With EUR/USD at 1.1400, Gromen’s view fits—emerging markets are deleveraging, selling dollars, and pushing the euro higher. Oil below $60 makes energy imports pricier in dollar terms, adding pressure.

Gromen warns of a “dollar endgame” where this debt crisis triggers a global collapse. Central banks buying gold (up 40% in 2024, now at $3,200) as a hedge supports his view. Trump’s tariffs amplify this—125% levies on China and a 10% base tariff (paused for 90 days) disrupt trade, making dollar debt harder to service. Gromen’s lens complements Johnson’s Milkshake endgame but highlights the debt bomb ticking beneath the surface.

Lyn Alden’s Structural Shift: De-dollarization in Slow Motion

Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact on X), founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, sees the dollar’s dominance eroding slowly. She points to the U.S. weaponizing the dollar—sanctions on Russia, asset freezes—as pushing countries like China and Russia to dedollarize. BRICS nations are exploring a commodity-backed currency, and central banks are diversifying into gold and euros. The EUR/USD at 1.1400 fits her narrative—the Eurozone’s stability (1.2% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, hawkish ECB) makes the euro attractive, while the U.S. slows (2.1% GDP growth, 4.5% unemployment, Fed rate cuts).

Alden sees Trump’s tariffs—145% on China, 125% Chinese retaliation—as accelerating this shift. China might push non-dollar trade (e.g., buying oil in yuan), especially with oil below $60. Gold at $3,200 reflects this dedollarization trend, as does central bank gold buying. Alden’s not predicting a dollar crash but a gradual decline in its reserve status. Her calm, data-driven take adds nuance to the chaos.

Tying It All Together: A Perfect Storm in 2025

Johnson’s Milkshake Theory sees the U.S. sucking up liquidity, predicting a dollar short squeeze despite the current dip—structural demand ($850 billion annually for debt servicing) and Trump’s tariffs starving the world of dollars support his view. Snider’s Eurodollar System agrees, seeing the dollar’s fall as a temporary liquidity crunch, not a medium-term trend. Schiff’s apocalyptic take blames U.S. fiscal mismanagement and tariffs for the dollar’s demise, with gold at $3,200 as proof. Gromen’s debt saturation highlights unpayable dollar debts driving the sell-off, and Alden’s structural shift sees a slow dedollarization process unfolding.

Trump’s tariffs are the catalyst. The 145% levy on China, 125% Chinese retaliation, and a 90-day pause on a 10% base tariff for others have markets in a frenzy. Oil below $60 hurts U.S. shale, the U.S. economy is slowing, and gold at $3,200 signals fear. The Eurozone’s relative stability boosts the euro, but the dollar’s structural demand might still save it in the medium term.

The Contrarian Take: Is the Dollar Really Doomed?

The dollar’s fall looks bad, but is it the end? Johnson and Snider say no—structural demand will prevail. There’s no viable dollar alternative yet—the yuan isn’t ready, and a BRICS currency is a pipe dream. The U.S. has the deepest capital markets, and the Fed can print money if needed. Schiff and Gromen’s dire warnings have been wrong before—Schiff’s clients lost big in 2008 betting against the U.S. Alden’s slow dedollarization gives the U.S. time to adapt. The EUR/USD chart suggests a potential reversal—RSI divergence and an overbought Stochastic hint at a pullback to 1.0900. A U.S. economic surprise or hawkish Fed pivot could spark a dollar comeback. Don’t write off the greenback yet!

The Trade Setup: How to Play the Dollar Fall

Traders, here’s your setup for EUR/USD at 1.1400:

Entry: Wait for a break below 1.1200, a key support. A daily close below confirms bearish momentum.

Stop Loss: Above 1.1400 to guard against fakeouts. Target: 1.0900, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200-day moving average—a 300-pip move with solid risk-reward. Confirmation: Look for a bearish candlestick (e.g., shooting star) at 1.1200 with a Stochastic downturn. This plays into a dollar recovery, but if the fall continues, go long on EUR/USD toward 1.1600. Volatility is your friend!

Why This Matters: The Bigger Picture

A weaker dollar could boost U.S. exports (good for Boeing), but pricier imports might stoke inflation. The Eurozone’s stronger euro could hurt exporters like Volkswagen but attract investment. Emerging markets get a breather with a lower dollar and oil below $60, but a rapid collapse could freeze Snider’s Eurodollar system. Gold at $3,200 signals fear—Schiff and Gromen see it heading higher. Trump’s tariffs are reshaping global trade, and the next 90 days will be wild.

Conclusion: Dollar Dark Hour—or a New Dawn?

On April 11, 2025, with EUR/USD at 1.1400, oil below $60, and gold at $3,200, the dollar’s fall is a clash of titans. Johnson’s Milkshake Theory predicts a short squeeze, Snider’s Eurodollar System sees a temporary dip, Schiff calls it the end, Gromen warns of a debt crisis, and Alden sees slow dedollarization. Trump’s tariffs—145% on China, 125% Chinese retaliation, and a 90-day pause on others—are driving the chaos. Is this the dollar’s darkest hour, or a setup for a comeback? Grab your charts, place your bets, and let’s see if the greenback rises from the ashes—or crashes and burns.

While the dollar dives and gold flies, we break it all down—join our Discord before the next plot twist!

Click here to read our latest article- Euro Surge: EUR/USD Reversal?