FX Market Recap: Drama & Dollar Moves (Mar 17–28)

Hey there, FX enthusiasts! Let’s dive into the currency chaos with our weekly roundup—where the dollar’s doing a tango, the euro’s eyeing a rebound, and the pound might just trip over its fiscal feet. We’ll recap the fireworks from March 17th–21st, 2025, and preview the action for March 24th–28th, 2025, with a dash of humor to keep those pips popping!

Last Week (Mar 17–21, 2025): A Currency Soap Opera in Five Acts

• Fed Plays It Safe, Dollar Takes the Lead (Mar 19)
  On March 19th, the Fed held rates steady, adopting a cautious tone amid tariff uncertainties—basically, they said, “Not touching this hot potato yet!” This gave the dollar a supportive boost, leaving other currencies in its dust.

• SNB Cuts While Others Watch (Mar 20)
  On March 20th, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) snipped rates by 25 bps, while the BoJ, BoE, and Riksbank held steady. It’s like the SNB brought scissors to a staring contest—talk about a cutting-edge move!

• India’s FX Reserves Flex (Mar 21)
  On March 21st, India’s forex reserves rose by $300M to $654.27B, showing resilience amid global turbulence. The Reserve Bank of India is stacking chips while others are still figuring out the game!

• Eurozone’s Current Account Slips (Mar 20)
  On March 20th, the Eurozone’s current account dropped to €13.2B from €50.5B, putting pressure on the euro. Looks like the euro’s wallet got lighter—time to tighten the belt, EUR!

• Turkey ETF in a Tizzy (Mar 17–21)
  From March 17th–21st, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF plunged 20% due to political unrest. The Turkish lira took a hit, proving that in FX, politics can lira-lly shake things up!

This Week (Mar 24–28, 2025): Five FX Focal Points to Watch

• Eurozone PMIs: EUR’s Chance to Shine? (Mar 24)
  On March 24th, Eurozone PMIs are expected to rise, fueled by optimism over new spending plans in Germany. Monex Europe predicts a potential EURUSD bounce above 1.09 if the data dazzles. Will the euro rise to the occasion, or will tariff fears clip its wings?

• UK Spring Forecast: GBP’s Fiscal Fumble (Mar 26)
  On March 26th, the UK’s Spring Forecast might see Chancellor Reeves breach her fiscal rules, likely underwhelming markets with timid tweaks. Monex expects the pound to dip—looks like GBP might be forecasting a gloomy spring!

• Norges Bank: NOK Stays Steady (Mar 27)
  On March 27th, Norges Bank is set to hold rates at 4.50%, with a hawkish twist after inflation hit 3.6% YoY. The Norwegian krone’s reaction should be muted, but with a 30% chance of a cut priced in, there’s a slight krone-ing for upside surprises!

• US PCE Data: Dollar’s Inflation Check (Mar 28)
  On March 28th, Core PCE is expected at 2.0% YoY, a key gauge for the Fed’s rate path. Strong data could keep the dollar inflated, while softer numbers might deflate its rally. USD traders, stay on high alert!

• Fed Speeches: USD Volatility Ahead (Mar 24–28)
  From March 24th–28th, Fed officials Bostic (Mar 24) and Williams (Mar 25) are speaking, potentially dropping hints on future policy. Their words could make the dollar bostic a new trend or leave markets william-ing from volatility—stay tuned!

Trader Takeaways: Navigating the FX Waves

• Dollar Strength: The Fed’s cautious stance (Mar 19) keeps USD supported—consider USD longs, but watch PCE data on Mar 28 for shifts.

• Euro Opportunity: Strong PMIs on Mar 24 could lift EURUSD; look for tactical buys if it breaks 1.09, but tariff risks loom.

• Pound Pressure: GBP might weaken post-Spring Forecast on Mar 26—shorting opportunities could emerge if fiscal news disappoints.

• Krone Calm: NOK should stay stable on Mar 27, but a hawkish Norges Bank could offer a small bullish nudge.

• Emerging Markets Caution: After Turkey’s ETF plunge (Mar 17–21), keep an eye on political risks in EM currencies like TRY.

Final Pun for the Road

In the FX market, it’s all about currency events—last week (Mar 17–21) showed us who’s got the cents, and this week (Mar 24–28), let’s see who makes the pounds! Keep your charts tight, your stops tighter, and your sense of humor tightest. Happy trading, folks!

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