Pahalgam Attack: Rising Tensions Between India and Pakistan

The Pahalgam Attack on April 22, 2025, has brought India and Pakistan—two nuclear-armed rivals—dangerously close to war again. This brutal act of terrorism, which killed 26 people (mostly Hindu tourists), has triggered diplomatic, military, and social upheaval in South Asia.

Blamed on The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, this assault echoes past high-profile events like the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and the 2019 Pulwama bombing. India’s strong response, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and preparing civil defense drills, has escalated tensions. Pakistan has responded with missile tests and military warnings.

This article explores the background, risks, and global impact of the Pahalgam Attack, asking the key question: Can war be avoided?

Why Kashmir Is Always a Flashpoint

The India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir started with the 1947 partition. The region has been the center of four wars and frequent clashes.

Terrorist attacks in Kashmir often bring the countries close to war. The 2001 and 2019 attacks led to massive military responses. The Pahalgam Attack is the most serious since 2019. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists, while Pakistan denies involvement.

Pahalgam Attack Details: What Happened?

On April 22, terrorists attacked tourists in Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, killing 26 people. They reportedly targeted Hindus, worsening communal tensions. Indian agencies identified the attackers as two Pakistanis and one local youth, trained by Lashkar-e-Taiba and other groups.

India responded strongly:

• Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty
• Closed borders and banned Pakistani imports
• Ordered civil defense drills across 244 districts
• Allowed the army to act freely

Pakistan countered by:

• Expelling Indian diplomats
• Suspending the Simla Agreement
• Test-firing missiles and closing its airspace

Skirmishes at the Line of Control (LoC) have already begun.

Escalation After the Pahalgam Attack: War or Warning?

The Pahalgam Attack has triggered a tit-for-tat escalation between India and Pakistan. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was labeled an “act of war” by Pakistan. Cross-border gunfire, drone sightings, and the capture of soldiers are increasing the risk of a larger military conflict.

Domestic politics play a big role too. Indian leaders are under pressure to strike back. In Pakistan, the army holds power and has vowed to respond strongly.

One wrong step or miscommunication could trigger a full-blown war.

Nuclear Weapons Make the Stakes Higher

Both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. India has a “no first use” policy, while Pakistan has signaled it could use nuclear weapons if threatened by a conventional invasion.

A limited nuclear exchange—using only 30% of their arsenals—could kill tens of millions and cause a global “nuclear winter,” affecting food and climate around the world.

Despite these risks, nuclear weapons have so far helped avoid full-scale war by acting as a deterrent. But the Pahalgam Attack may test that balance.

Global Reactions to the Pahalgam Attack

The United Nations and major global powers have urged peace but taken no strong action. U.S., China, and Europe have mostly issued travel advisories and general appeals for restraint.

Mediation efforts by countries like Iran have started, but global attention is divided due to other crises in the Middle East and Ukraine. The world seems unable—or unwilling—to step in firmly.

Socioeconomic Effects of the Pahalgam Attack

The Pahalgam Attack has hurt both economies:

• Pakistan’s stock market fell 4%
• India’s market rose 1.5% due to strong government response
• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty threatens Pakistan’s farming sector
• Kashmir’s tourism, a vital economic source, has collapsed
• Mass arrests and protests are increasing political tensions

The attack has also heightened religious tensions in India and deepened divisions between communities.

What Could Trigger a Full India-Pakistan War?

Here are four ways war could start:

1. Airstrikes: India may carry out limited strikes like in 2016 and 2019
2. Ground incursion: This could lead to Pakistan using nuclear weapons
3. Miscalculation: Accidental attacks, downed aircraft, or poor communication
4. Another terror attack: A second large-scale event could break India’s restraint

At the same time, peace is possible through global diplomacy and pressure, but only if both nations cooperate.

Global Impact If the Pahalgam Attack Leads to War

A nuclear war after the Pahalgam Attack would affect the whole planet:

• Global temperatures could drop 2–5°C
• Crop failures would cause famine in Asia, the U.S., and Europe
• Millions could die, not only in South Asia but worldwide
• Supply chains and economies would collapse
• Health problems due to UV exposure and food shortages would rise

This is not just a South Asian crisis—it’s a global threat.

Steps to Prevent Another Crisis Like the Pahalgam Attack

To avoid disaster, these actions are needed:

• Both countries must restore communication and agree to a ceasefire
• India should reconsider the Indus treaty decision
• Pakistan must take real action against terrorist groups
• A joint investigation could ease tensions
• The U.S., China, and the UN must engage more actively
• Citizens in both countries should support peace, not nationalism

In the long term, both sides must address the Kashmir issue and reduce nuclear risks.

Final Thoughts: What the Pahalgam Attack Teaches Us

The Pahalgam Attack has brought India and Pakistan dangerously close to war. While nuclear deterrence might stop a full-scale conflict, limited military strikes and escalation remain real threats.

The world cannot stay silent. This crisis is a warning to all of us that unresolved tensions, political pressure, and terrorism can push us to the brink of catastrophe.

The time to act is now—before it’s too late.

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