New Scramble for Africa: Chinese Migration and Europe’s Migrant Crisis

Africa’s tumultuous history has long been marked by external forces shaping its destiny. From European colonization to post-independence struggles, the continent has faced upheaval, economic exploitation, and political instability. Today, a new set of challenges is emerging that could define Africa’s place in the world for the rest of the 21st century: mass migration and the rise of Chinese influence on the continent.

This isn’t just Africa’s story—it’s becoming a global issue, one that is reshaping the geopolitical landscape, especially in Europe and China. As millions of Africans migrate northward toward Europe and the Chinese government invests heavily in Africa, the stage is set for one of the most significant international developments of our time.

The Migrant Wave: Europe’s Looming Crisis

Muammar Gaddafi, the former leader of Libya, once issued a stark warning to Europe: “Europe runs the risk of turning black from illegal immigration… it could turn into Africa.” At the time, this statement was dismissed as the musings of a despotic leader. However, in the years since Gaddafi’s ouster in 2011—following a NATO-led intervention—the former Libyan leader’s prediction is becoming a reality.

Gaddafi’s removal resulted in Libya descending into chaos. The stable regime, although repressive, had effectively acted as a buffer preventing mass migration across the Mediterranean. Without it, millions of migrants from Africa and the Middle East have poured into Europe, many transiting through a now lawless Libya. The result has been a humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean, with thousands drowning in perilous sea crossings and Europe facing an ever-growing challenge to manage the flow of migrants.

This trend shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, all indicators suggest it is accelerating. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the migrants come from, is growing at an unprecedented rate. Africa south of the Sahara accounted for just 6% of the world’s population in the 1950s. Today, that number has swelled to 20%, and the United Nations projects that by the turn of the next century, it will rise to a staggering 45%.

This demographic explosion raises serious questions about the continent’s ability to sustain itself. The region’s agricultural capacity is already strained, and as the population continues to grow, food shortages are likely to intensify. Without significant technological and economic intervention, Africa’s internal challenges could spark further migration waves.

The Chinese in Africa: A New Colonial Power?

While African migrants are heading north, another group is making its way to the continent in increasing numbers: the Chinese. Doug Casey, an astute observer of global trends, refers to this phenomenon as a “veritable recolonization” of Africa. Indeed, Chinese migration to Africa has skyrocketed, with millions of Chinese migrants now living and working across the continent.

China’s interest in Africa is clear:

The continent is rich in natural resources—oil, minerals, and agricultural land—that China needs to fuel its growing economy. The Chinese government has embarked on an ambitious infrastructure program, part of its Belt and Road Initiative, building roads, railways, ports, and other key infrastructure projects across Africa. In exchange, African governments receive much-needed investments, but at a steep cost.

Chinese loans to African countries have soared, often accompanied by corruption and sweetheart deals for African politicians. Casey aptly notes that many African leaders are playing the role of “Mister 10%,” pocketing bribes while their countries take on unsustainable levels of debt. China, of course, expects repayment. When these debts are inevitably defaulted on, the consequences could be dire for African sovereignty.

It’s not hard to imagine a future where the Chinese government sends the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to enforce its claims on African resources. Chinese boots on the ground in Africa may become a reality sooner rather than later, particularly if other methods of debt collection fail. As Casey points out, this could spark a race war in the coming decades, as a few hundred million Chinese immigrants increasingly come into conflict with Africa’s rapidly expanding native population.

Africa’s Demographic Time Bomb

Few people realize just how rapidly Africa’s population is growing. As mentioned earlier, the continent’s share of the global population is set to rise from 20% to 45% by the end of the century. Lagos, Nigeria, could soon be the largest city in the world, with a population exceeding 90 million. Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may follow closely, and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania could become the third-largest city on the planet.

This population boom will create immense pressures on already fragile states. With limited manufacturing capacity (Africa accounts for just 1% of global manufacturing output, most of it in South Africa), and an over-reliance on raw materials, the continent’s economic future looks grim unless drastic changes are made.

A growing number of Africans are already acutely aware of the stark disparity between living standards in Africa and those in Europe and North America. Many are also aware of the generous welfare benefits awaiting them if they manage to make it to the West. NGOs and international organizations are fueling the migration, facilitating the dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean and, in some cases, even flying migrants to the United States.

For instance, as Casey points out, who exactly funded the relocation of 200,000 penniless Somali Muslims to Minnesota? The answer remains unclear, but it highlights the growing network of organizations involved in encouraging migration from Africa.

The Future of Africa: Chinese Control or African Renaissance?

The future of Africa seems to be hanging in the balance between two opposing forces. On one hand, there is the promise of an African renaissance, a future where the continent leverages its vast human and natural resources to rise from the ashes of colonial exploitation and become a global powerhouse. On the other hand, Africa risks falling under the economic and political control of China, a new form of colonization that could lock the continent into a state of dependency for decades to come.

For China, Africa offers an unparalleled opportunity to secure the resources it needs to maintain its economic dominance. For African leaders, the influx of Chinese capital provides a quick fix to their short-term problems, but it may be laying the groundwork for long-term instability. As Casey notes, the Chinese view Africans primarily as a cheap labor force, a means to an end. The cultural and racial tensions between these two groups could boil over into open conflict in the not-so-distant future.

In the meantime, the West seems content to watch from the sidelines. The United States, once a dominant player in Africa, is now more focused on internal challenges and its rivalry with China. But as China expands its footprint on the continent, the stakes are rising. Control of Africa’s resources could tip the scales in the ongoing global struggle for economic supremacy.

Conclusion

The next few decades will be pivotal for Africa, and by extension, the world. The continent’s rapidly growing population, combined with the influx of Chinese migrants and the continuing wave of African migration toward Europe, will create immense challenges and opportunities.

If Africa is to chart its own course in the 21st century, it will need to find ways to harness its population growth for economic development. The alternative is a future of instability, dependency, and potential conflict with new powers like China.

Europe and the West, too, will need to prepare for the consequences of Africa’s demographic explosion. Migration pressures will only grow, and unless the underlying causes are addressed, the Mediterranean will continue to be a flashpoint for humanitarian crises.

Ultimately, the fate of Africa will depend on how its leaders, citizens, and external partners navigate this complex and rapidly changing landscape. Whether it becomes the battleground for a new scramble or the cradle of an African renaissance remains to be seen.

FAQs

1. Why is Africa’s population growing so rapidly?

Africa’s high fertility rates, particularly in Sub-Saharan regions, contribute to its rapid population growth. Additionally, improvements in healthcare have reduced mortality rates, leading to an overall population boom.

2. How is China investing in Africa?

China’s investments are primarily in infrastructure, including roads, railways, ports, and mines. These projects are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to increase its global influence by building trade routes and securing resources.

3. What are the implications of African migration for Europe?

Mass migration from Africa places significant pressure on European social, economic, and political systems. Europe faces the challenge of integrating large numbers of migrants while managing rising anti-immigrant sentiments.

4. How is the West responding to China’s influence in Africa?

The West, particularly the United States, has been slower to respond to China’s growing influence in Africa. While there is increasing concern about China’s dominance in the region, Western countries have yet to formulate a comprehensive strategy to counter it.

5. What are the potential consequences of China’s recolonization of Africa?

If China continues to dominate Africa’s economy, the continent may become increasingly dependent on Chinese capital and labor. This could lead to conflicts between Chinese migrants and local populations, and potentially even military intervention by China to protect its interests.