US Dollar in April 2025: Why It’s Falling Despite High Demand

April isn’t just another month—it’s a macro thriller. And right at the center? The U.S. dollar, stumbling despite high rates and supposed strength. Just a year ago, we were firmly in Peter Schiff’s camp, echoing the gold-bug gospel and bracing for fiat collapse. But today? We’re sipping on Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake, and it’s tasting more accurate by the day.

Foreign governments are dumping Treasuries—not to destroy the dollar, but to get dollars. Meanwhile, the greenback is weakening, even with rates still at 5.25%. Here’s why we changed our stance, how Brent’s thesis is unfolding in real time, and what it means for gold, Treasuries, and the next leg of the macro game.

Back Then: Living in the Schiff Narrative

Flashback to 2023: we were all-in on Peter Schiff’s thesis. The U.S. was piling on debt like it was a hobby, the Fed was printing recklessly, inflation was boiling over, and de-dollarization seemed inevitable. The Fed looked trapped, credibility was crumbling, and gold was our safe haven.

We were convinced: the bond market would break, inflation would spiral, and the dollar would collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

Enter Brent Johnson: The Milkshake Shift

Then came Brent Johnson, offering a view that wasn’t about denial—it was about sequence. His Dollar Milkshake Theory proposed that before the dollar collapses, it actually spikes due to global demand. The world runs on over $300 trillion of debt—most of it denominated in USD. So when the Fed tightens, a global dollar shortage emerges.

Countries don’t dump Treasuries because they’re done with the dollar—they’re forced to sell them to get dollars. Brent’s bet? The dollar will surge before it dies. He’s not discounting Schiff’s endgame—he just sees a brutal, liquidity-driven squeeze as the prelude.

April 2025: Dollar Weakness? Not So Fast

Despite a 5.25% benchmark rate, the dollar is down almost 9% YTD—more than 5% of that in April alone. The ICE Dollar Index just hit a three-year low. On the surface, that screams weakness. But dig deeper.

Foreign governments offloaded $86 billion in Treasuries between December and February. It’s not a coordinated anti-dollar revolt—it’s a liquidity scramble. As trade slows and external debt pressure mounts, they’re liquidating assets to raise USD. It’s survival, not sabotage.

Meanwhile, private investors are buying up Treasuries like it’s 2019. Net private purchases hit $125.8 billion in February—the most since late 2023. They’re not stupid. They see what’s coming: a slowdown, rate cuts, and a bond price rally.

Even Belgium—a usual proxy for Chinese flows—ramped up its U.S. holdings to $400 billion. Not politics. Just collateral flow. That milkshake is mixing.

Brent’s Playbook in Action

What’s happening now fits Brent’s script. Foreign sales of Treasuries are prepping the stage for a short squeeze on the dollar. It’s not a crash—it’s the setup for one last painful rally. The kind that destroys every USD-denominated debtor on the way up.

And gold? It’s up over 15% YTD, beating every major fiat currency. Central banks are buying at record levels. They’re not guessing. They’re hedging—just like Brent’s been doing for years. This is the hedge for Phase Two, when the dollar finally cracks.

Why We Flipped: Schiff Warned, Brent Calculated

Peter Schiff laid the intellectual foundation. Debt is unsustainable. Fiat is doomed. Gold wins. But his fatal flaw? Timing.

Brent didn’t disagree—he just sequenced it better. He recognized the dollar’s role as the world’s lifeblood. Before it breaks, it spikes. Before gold flies, the world burns.

So we still hold gold. We still see fiat collapse. But we also believe the dollar will tighten the screws one last time. That’s the Brent advantage. And it’s proving right.

The UAE’s Bold Dollar Play

While most countries were selling Treasuries, the UAE went long. They added $43 billion in U.S. bonds in January and February. That’s not noise—it’s a strategic pivot.

They’re positioning Dubai as a future USD capital hub. While the rest of the world panics, they’re quietly accumulating. That’s how smart capital moves—anticipating flows, not reacting to fear.

Final Thoughts: Schiff Saw the Crash, Brent Mapped the Road

Schiff sounded the alarm. Brent drew the roadmap.

We still agree with Schiff’s endgame. But we’re following Brent’s path. For now, that means holding gold in one hand and squeezing the milkshake with the other.

Because in macro? Direction matters. But timing wins the trade.

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